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JP

  • in JP, Wins
  • 1 min read

3436 (SUMCO): Swing to a breakout

3436 trade plan

My biggest JP market win to date! From an average entry price of 3020 to a 4303 exit, that's about a 43% gain.

To be honest I feel like I'm finding my niche with swing trading. I know it's a bull market and I still need to prove myself when things go upside down, but wins like this helps you be more confident in executing your trade ideas.

Trade Plan

May 11: AOTS on weekly starts. Currently on EMA9 support.

Entry1: 2980 (May 19) - 50% buy on day-1 (confirmation) candle

Entry2: 3060 (May 20) - 50% buy on day-2 (validation) candle

Target price: ~3750 level for a ~23% gain CL: 7% to MA20 trend line RRR: 3:1

Notes

May 22: RSI is healthy (60 as of yesterday EOD).

May 28: Daily MA20 seems to be holding.

May 29: Box BO with strong volume

Jun 1: BO confirmation with strong volume.

Exit

Jun 2: Sold EOD at first black candle.

3436 June 2 price action

Price was in the lower level of -7% to -5% in the first half of the trading day then started to climb back up in second half. So far price movement in the JP market tends to be better towards the EOD.

So far price movement in the JP market tends to be better towards the EOD.

Also, the JP market seems to have a warm-up period in the first 30 mins of the day. Avoid trading during this time.

5016 (JX Advanced Metal Corp): A bet on the weekly MA

5016 trade plan

Last May 20 I noticed a big pull back with a potential weekly MA20 support. I bet on candle-0 of that MA support line hoping for a good price action the following week.

5016 trade plan

Monday came and the reality looked to be going the opposite way.

Price action was too slow. Then I realized I never looked at the RSI level before entering.

This was also my first time buying below MA50.

Concluded capital is better elsewhere.

Create case study for later but this looks to be a successful exit after today's daily MA100 breakdown.

Check the daily RSI even when betting on weekly!

  • in JP, Wins
  • 1 min read

SMFG (8316): A cup and handle story

ICT trade plan

Finally was able to gain back what I lost on this pick from almost 3 months back.

Re-entry point mainly anchored on the daily MA100 and weekly MA20 of the stock expecting a cup and handle pattern. And it did-- the handle was supported by MA100 on the daily chart.

As for the exit, a pullback seemed more common than a follow through of the breakout candle. I exited based on this. Though this morning (day after the exit), the price jumped around 2.5%.

Should I consider to sell the next morning after the breakout candle?

Also in hindisght, the index formed the same pattern.

ICT trade plan

Don't forget to check the index once in a while

SMFG (8316): A loss to the bears

ICT trade plan

My entry here was on spot. The idea was for the price to bounce back from EMA9.

EMA9 was also close to MA20 so it could act as another support level. Delta between these two lines was about 3.7% so that's another 1.3% headroom from the latter.

13 candles later the price potential profit reached 13.3%. Realistically, I could have secured my profit on the next two lower candles but obviously that didn't happen. If it did, that could still have been a profit of 5.8%.

The takeaway: Exit on box formation

Renesas: Buy on breakout

ICT trade plan

This needs to go the vault because this is the trade that, in fact, gave me the confidence to get back into trading. Honestly, I've never thought I would be trading in the Japan market for the main reason I couldn't understand Nihonggo. Well, I still can't understand very well until now, but here I am, playing in the market in humble beginnings.

This is technically my first TSE trade. The total holding period was about 5 weeks which I thought would have taken less time to make the same amont of profit. Saw this stock on the screener with a good amount of volume with a price breakout from a 6-month consolidation phase. Entered at the third candle.

Stock consolidated for a few weeks before breaking out once more. Exited at second candle of box formation.

In retrospect

Yes, it indeed formed a new box but with higher lows. I could have planned another entry at box bottom.

If I followed through, the exit plan could have been the box breakdown. If that happened, I still would have profited another ~27%.

Bears took over at the start of March on fears of oil supply shortage due to the US attack on Iran. Even then, the stock recovered following EMA9.